Env Exp Biol (2012) 10: 41–47

Changes in breeding bird distribution in Latvia and their correspondence to modelled changes in distribution in Europe due to climate change

Abstract

The aim of our study was to evaluate changes in breeding bird distribution in Latvia from 1980 – 1984 to 2000 – 2004 and to compare the recorded changes with predictions on range shifts on a European level due to climate change by the end of the 21^st century. To evaluate changes in breeding bird distribution we used data from two nation-wide breeding bird atlas studies, controlling for differences in grid square size, grid projections and different levels of survey effort. The significance of the recorded change, as well as that of predicted change, was calculated using chi-square tests of independence. The results showed that the distribution of breeding birds in Latvia has changed significantly from 1980 – 1984 to 2000 – 2004, with 53.8% of the species either decreasing or increasing in distribution. During that time, also the climate in Latvia has undergone a general trend of “becoming warmer”. In general, the recorded changes in breeding bird distribution in Latvia do not match the predictions regarding change in distribution due to climate change. Several limitations hinder making sound conclusions, but we found no evidence of a major impact of climate change on recorded changes in breeding bird distribution. However, for some species, climate change can be seen as one of the main drivers of the change.